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Even the Treasury Department has weighed in on the debate. Though that would be Bush's and Obama's Treasury departments, not Trump's. The Treasury Department released several iterations of a paper between and that measured the size of past tax cuts.
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The Treasury reports found that, since , three other tax cut bills have been bigger: Reagan's cuts, and two bills passed by Obama to extend the Bush tax cuts. Between and , when the data is less reliable, three tax cuts were larger, two of them after the war, when rates were lowered again.
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The Treasury measured the sizes of tax cuts by looking at the revenue effects of the bills as a percentage of gross domestic product -- in other words, how much federal revenue the bill cuts away as a portion of the economy. Reagan's cut was 2. Obama's tax cut extensions in and were 1.
Trump's tax cut, by contrast, is estimated to be about 1. Even excluding Obama's cuts -- which were really extensions of previous cuts first enacted by Bush -- Trump's tax reform bill will have nowhere near the effect on revenue that Reagan's did.
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Trump's cuts for individuals are temporary. So, like Bush, he's potentially setting himself up for another president to get to take credit for his tax legislation in When multiple tax cuts and increases by the same President are grouped , Trump's cut shrinks further. Bush's cuts come in at 1. Even accounting for Reagan's rollbacks after , his first-term cuts exceed Trump's bill. The calculation for Trump's tax bill's revenue effect is made by taking the Joint Committee on Taxation's estimated budgetary effects for the tax bill from through and dividing by the Congressional Budget Office's cumulative GDP projections through the same period, while factoring in the joint committee's estimated growth effects.
A four-year window average is used because it is the same baseline the Treasury report uses, and it is also the period where the bill costs the most. All calculations, including those in the Treasury report, start with the static estimates of the bills. Part of the reason the current proposals have less of a cut than previous bills is because of how the legislation was passed.
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Republicans used "budget reconciliation " to get it passed without Democratic votes. That allowed the GOP to bypass a filibuster, but it also reduced how deep any cuts can be. Reagan, the saint of "trickle-down economics," cut rates to corporations and to individuals across the board in , giving the largest cuts to high earners. Reagan's tax reform made substantial changes to the tax code's structure to try to simplify it. Whether Reagan's cuts helped or hurt the rich and whether they are the reason for the growth the economy experienced during the s is still a matter of debate.
Regardless, the Bush tax reductions borrowed heavily from the supply-side ideology that underpinned Reagan's cuts. Bush cut taxes across the board, lowered rates on dividends and capital gains, and changed the estate tax to benefit high earners.
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His cuts are generally credited with helping middle-class families and, even more, the wealthy. Bush is faulted, however, for driving increased inequality between low and high earners. When Obama extended most of the Bush cuts, several provisions that benefited high earners were allowed to expire.
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